Earlier this week, Alex Foxen and Ossi “Monarch” Ketola clashed in a $30,000/$60,000 super-high-stakes money recreation on the Triton Poker Collection Jeju II. The pair performed out a panoramic hand that resulted in a $10,990,000 pot slide to Ketola when he improved to a full home on the river whereas Foxen had turned a flush. The pot, the largest-ever in televised poker historical past, garnered loads of consideration from the poker neighborhood, together with many questioning Foxen’s all-in river name. Right here, PokerNews ambassador Lukas Robinson makes use of GTO Wizard to research the record-breaking hand.
Pre-flop Evaluation
Monarch opens to $150,000 (2.5bb) on the BTN/SB holding Ok♣J♥ GTO Permitted ✔️
Alex Foxen defends from the BB with 8♦6♦. GTO Disapproved ✖️
Based on GTO Wizard, 8♦6♦ ought to all the time be performed as a three-bet on this state of affairs, with a beneficial frequency of 100%.
That mentioned, the EV (anticipated worth) of calling versus three-betting on this spot runs very shut, that means Foxen’s determination to simply name isn’t a significant mistake. Nonetheless, the solver leans towards the three-bet because the beneficial play, largely for strategic causes of steadiness and long-term EV maximisation.
With this in thoughts, I made a decision to nodelock Foxen’s calling vary to higher replicate his precise tendencies, quite than sticking strictly to the solver’s advised vary. Particularly, I adjusted a few of the mid-strength suited connectors, similar to 86s, to combine between calling and 3-betting. This appears like an affordable assumption, on condition that Foxen elected to simply name with 86s on this explicit hand.
What’s Nodelocking?
Nodelocking is the method of telling the solver: “From this level within the hand, one participant goes to deviate from pure GTO technique.” The solver then re-solves the remainder of the sport tree, taking that adjustment into consideration.
That is an extremely highly effective device as a result of it allows you to discover how ranges and methods shift if a participant is extra passive, extra aggressive, or has a selected tendency. In GTO Wizard, this function is very simple to make use of; you possibly can apply AI-assisted nodelocks and get the re-solved outputs in seconds. That is precisely what I’m utilizing to analyse this hand.
Submit-flop Evaluation
Flop ($300,000 Pot): Ok♦J♦8♣
Alex Foxen Checks the Flop. GTO Permitted ✔️
On the flop, the solver recommends that Foxen use a pure verify technique. It is because Monarch holds the clear vary benefit on this texture, leaving no incentive for the Foxen to introduce a donk-betting vary.
Monarch Checks the Flop with Ok♣J♥. GTO Disapproved ✖️
Though the solver recommends checking 43% of the time general, the very best EV performs for KJo on this spot are to wager both small or huge, quite than verify.
The solver recommends a combined technique on this flop, utilizing checks, together with two wager sizes: A small wager of 26% (1.3bb) and a big overbet of 150% (7.5bb). This technique arises from splitting the vary between two forms of worth arms:
Palms that require a variety of safety, similar to AA, KQ, KJ, 88. These arms are sturdy sufficient to justify an overbet as a result of they should defend towards attracts on this very moist board, whereas additionally extracting worth from weaker holdings within the BTN’s vary.
Palms that don’t require a lot safety or aren’t sturdy sufficient to overbet, together with KK, JJ, 88. These arms don’t want important safety and in addition block most of the calling combos within the BTN’s vary. In addition they assist steadiness the small wager measurement, guaranteeing that this sizing isn’t overloaded with too many weak arms.
Palms like QQ, AJ and K5 are higher suited to smaller bets, as overbetting would primarily goal stronger arms unnecessarily.Since Monarch checked the flop with Ok♣J♥, I once more nodelocked his vary, mixing in some checks with their strongest arms, similar to units and two pairs, to replicate life like in-game strains. You may see that nodelocked button vary within the picture under.
Flip ($300,000 Pot): A♦
Alex Foxen bets $250,000. GTO Permitted ✔️
Really helpful Guess Sizes and EV for 86s.
The solver prefers 120% or 40% pot-sized bets over Foxen’s chosen 82% measurement as an general technique, although the EV could be very shut throughout all three choices. Particularly for 8♦6♦, the solver recommends mixing between checking and betting on the flip. You may see above how shut the EV is for all 4 choices. This strategy helps steadiness the checking vary with sturdy arms, guaranteeing it stays unexploitable.
Monarch calls the $250,000 wager on the Flip. GTO Permitted ✔️
The solver recommends no raises from the BTN on this spot, because the BB now holds a a lot increased focus of flushes of their vary.
River ($800,000 Pot): Ok♠
Alex Foxen bets $550,000. GTO Permitted (Simply) ✔️
Really helpful Guess Sizes and EV for 86s.
The solver marginally approves the $550,000 (70% pot) wager right here, however solely at a really low frequency. As proven above, the solver prefers a mixture of checking, 30% pot bets, and 100% pot bets. This is smart: betting 100% permits flushes and straights to extract worth from worse arms like two pairs and high pairs, whereas 30% bets allow some high pairs and the weakest flushes to nonetheless get worth. This additionally allows you to steadiness your bluffs between the 2 wager sizes. For 8♦6♦ on the river, the very best EV performs are both a 100% pot wager or a 30% pot wager.
Monarch raises all-in for a further $4,500,000. GTO Permitted ✔️
KJo EV on the River.
A straightforward, customary all-in jam with a full home, with no smaller sizings getting used with this hand. As proven above, the bluffs are primarily coming from journeys and two pairs, that are very troublesome to determine when enjoying for such huge stakes. Notably, no flushes worse than 8♦6♦ are jamming for worth on this spot.
Alex Foxen calls the all-in for his remaining $4,500,000. GTO Permitted ✔️
Flush Combos Calling/Folding on the River.
As proven, the first flushes calling are ten-high flushes. Apparently, eight-high flushes name extra typically than nine-high flushes, as they block a few of the potential full-house combos within the opponent’s vary.
A devastating, however appropriate name in idea from Foxen, demonstrating why he is among the finest gamers on the earth. Whereas he technically misplaced to a greater hand this time, the decision was the very best EV play in line with the solver. Nevertheless, this EV relies upon solely on whether or not Foxen believed Monarch was bluffing sufficient on this spot.
As we noticed earlier, Monarch wanted to begin bluffing with journeys and two pairs. If Foxen assumed he was utilizing these combos, then calling with 8♦6♦ was a fantastic play long-term, because it beats sufficient of Monarch’s vary to make the decision worthwhile, therefore why the solver favours it.
Conversely, if Foxen didn’t imagine Monarch was able to bluffing sufficient, folding 8♦6♦ would have had increased EV. As a result of KJo theoretically needs to 100% wager the flop, it is smart that Foxen might need assumed Monarch’s vary additionally contained fewer full homes than it really did in-game. This hand highlights the fantastic margins of decision-making in poker, particularly when enjoying for $11,000,000.
Conclusion
Earlier than analysing this hand with the solver, I requested myself two key questions:
Is the flop verify with Ok♣J♥ solver-approved? (I initially felt it wasn’t.)Is Alex Foxen’s river name to the all-in solver-approved? (This one felt shut.)
Utilizing the GTO Wizard solver, we are able to now see that whereas checkingK♣J♥ on the flop isn’t a catastrophic error, it’s suboptimal, as betting would produce considerably extra EV general. That mentioned, if Monarch hadn’t checked Ok♣J♥ on the flop, would he have gotten most worth from 8♦6♦ on the river? That’s one thing we’ll probably by no means know!
For the second query, the solver exhibits that the choice was extraordinarily shut. The EV distinction between calling or folding 8♦6♦ on the river is simply 0.1, which is negligible. As the most effective gamers on the earth, Foxen probably recognised this in-game. My guess is that he noticed sufficient from Monarch to imagine there have been adequate bluffs and never sufficient worth in his opponent’s vary to make the decision worthwhile. So, although Alex misplaced the hand, he made the very best EV play by calling.
A really well-played hand by each gamers, who made historical past with the most important televised poker pot ever!
Lukas Robinson
PokerNews Ambassador
