Was Poker Corridor of Famer Daniel Negreanu taking part in recreation idea optimum (GTO) poker again in 2015?
GTO technique has turn out to be a key part of poker in recent times, however most gamers weren’t conscious of it a decade in the past. Utilizing GTO Wizard, let us take a look at a hand from Day 5 of the 2015 World Sequence of Poker (WSOP) Important Occasion to see if the technique on show holds up.
The Hand
The hand in query, which occurred with 210 gamers remaining, was between Negreanu and fellow Canadian Omri Moga with blinds of 8,000/16,000 with a 2,000 ante. The subsequent place would pay $40,433, whereas $7.6 million was up high for the eventual champion.
Motion began with Moga opening to 35,000 within the hijack off a stack of 850,000 holding A♥9♣. Negreanu defended within the huge blind with Okay♣10♠ and a stack of simply over 1,000,000.
Negreanu checked because the flop landed A♣Q♥4♥ and Moga wager 30,000 together with his high pair. Negreanu check-raised to 85,000 his Broadway draw and Moga known as. Each gamers then checked on the three♥ flip.
The river introduced the 7♠ and Negreanu wager out 225,000 after lacking. Moga folded his high pair and Negreanu gained the pot with king-high.
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Pre-Flop Evaluation
Moga opens to 35,000 within the HJ holding A♥9♣. Ace-nine offsuit is a pure increase from the HJ pre-flop. That is GTO-approved.
Negreanu defends from the large blind with Okay♣10♠. That is GTO-approved.
Each gamers make customary pre-flop selections. Let’s now break down the post-flop motion.
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Flop Evaluation
Flop (96,000 Pot): A♣Q♥4♥
Negreanu’s examine is GTO-approved. Customary examine vary on this particular flop.
Moga bets 30,000 with A♥9♣. That is GTO-approved.
C-betting near vary on this flop from the hijack versus huge blind.
Right here is the advisable technique and EV for ace-nine offsuit on the flop:
The solver recommends utilizing a small wager (33%) and a big wager (100%) on this board. A♥9♣ leans towards the smaller dimension, as having the A♥ reduces the necessity for added safety.
Sadly, it appears Negreanu wasn’t taking part in exact GTO poker again in 2015. His increase just isn’t GTO-approved.
Right here is the advisable technique and EV for king-ten offsuit on the flop versus wager:
That mentioned, some king-ten offsuit combos do check-raise at a small frequency, however these comprise a coronary heart, not like Okay♣10♠. Negreanu is well-known for his exploitative fashion and talent to learn opponents, so let’s study the lowjack vary towards this increase to see if it will realistically fold extra typically than the solver suggests.
Moga calls the 85,000 increase. That is GTO-approved.
No arms with an ace fold to this flop increase. A♥9♣ opts for the standard name.
In opposition to this increase, Moga is meant to name with practically 59% of his vary. Let’s run a nodelock take a look at, if I improve the fold proportion by, say, 10%, we will see whether or not Okay♣10♠ begins elevating extra in consequence.
Right here is the advisable technique and EV for king-ten offsuit on the Flop vs a nodelocked over-folding vary:
Even towards this nodelocked vary, the solver solely recommends elevating with king-ten offsuit combos that comprise a coronary heart. So, even when Negreanu believed his opponent was overfolding right here, the solver nonetheless doesn’t recommend utilizing king-ten offsuit to lift this c-bet.
Since Okay♣10♠ wasn’t within the solver’s advisable elevating vary on the flop, I’ve nodelocked it to lift at a 50% frequency so we will analyse the optimum technique for each gamers on the flip and river.
Flip Evaluation
Flip (266,000 Pot): 3♥
Negreanu checks the flip with Okay♣10♠. That is GTO-approved.
Though the solver recommends an 88% betting frequency for the BB’s vary on this flip, Okay♣10♠ is without doubt one of the few combos that prefers to examine.
EV for king-ten offsuit on the flip:
A easy technique for all king-ten offsuit combos on the flip is to examine once you don’t maintain a coronary heart and wager once you do. It is because king-ten offsuit lacks sufficient fairness to bluff on the flip with no coronary heart in hand.
Moga checks again the flip with A♥9♣. That is GTO-approved.
The solver recommends checking at a excessive frequency on this flip, as the large blind’s vary isn’t capped and consists of flushes that favor to examine.
Right here is the advisable technique and EV for ace-nine offsuit on the flip:
Checking with each ace-nine offsuit combo generates the very best total EV on the flip.
River Evaluation
River (266,000 Pot): 7♠
Negreanu bets 225,000 on the river with Okay♣10♠. This isn’t GTO-approved.
Sadly, one other GTO mistake from Negreanu. The solver prefers utilizing JTo as a river bluff, since this hand forces all of the dominating combos corresponding to QT, KT, KJ, and QJ to fold.
Right here is the advisable technique and EV for king-ten offsuit on the river:
Right here, betting with Okay♣10♠ has a lot decrease EV than checking. Nevertheless, in-game this wager did make ace-nine offsuit fold, and I think that theoretically, ace-nine offsuit shouldn’t fold to this wager dimension. As soon as we see Moga’s response, it will be fascinating to offer him extra folds than idea suggests and see if Okay♣10♠ then prefers to wager on the river in consequence.
Moga folds to the river wager with A♥9♣. This isn’t GTO-approved.
As we suspected, ace-nine offsuit largely prefers to only name this river wager.
Right here is the advisable technique and EV for ace-nine offsuit on the river:
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Folding has the bottom EV in comparison with calling and even going all-in as a bluff with A♥9♣. That is based mostly on taking part in versus a solver-recommended vary, however in actuality, Negreanu included extra bluffing combos on the river than the solver steered. Because of this, the EV of calling would improve, making folding much more pricey when it comes to total EV.
I’ve nodelocked Moga’s vary in elevating his river folds from 50% to 75% towards the 85% wager sizing, which can enable us to analyse what Negreanu’s optimum response must be on this state of affairs versus Moga’s precise in-game technique.
Negreanu’s river response when Moga overfolds to a wager:
Unsurprisingly, Negreanu’s river examine frequency drops from 81% to only 12%.
Right here is the advisable technique and EV for KTo on the river versus a 75% fold:
Now, all king-ten offsuit combos favor to wager. The EV of betting Okay♣10♠ rises dramatically, from -0.45 to six.63.
Conclusion
This hand is a traditional instance of why you shouldn’t comply with solvers blindly and does help the speculation that Negreanu has all the time been forward of his time. Based on the solver, Negreanu isn’t supposed to lift Okay♣10♠ on the flop or wager it on the river towards an opponent taking part in good GTO.
Nevertheless, in actuality, most gamers, even at this time, don’t play good GTO, and in 2015, solvers have been nonetheless new. Negreanu appropriately recognised that his opponent was seemingly overfolding on the river, so he made the very best EV determination in-game by betting to pressure higher arms to fold.
Many individuals dismiss GTO poker as a result of they consider most people don’t play near GTO, and subsequently assume solver outputs are ineffective. Nevertheless, that is solely true should you don’t use the node locking function, as I did to analyse this hand.
This hand is an ideal instance of why the AI node locking function on GTO Wizard is so highly effective, particularly when reviewing your individual arms towards opponents who deviate from GTO technique. If Negreanu had blindly adopted the solver right here, he wouldn’t have extracted the very best EV. That’s the place nodelocking turns into invaluable.
By adjusting your opponents’ ranges to mirror how they really play in-game, you’ll be able to see the optimum GTO technique for exploiting these tendencies. This makes learning actual arms much more sensible and bridges the hole between idea and real-world poker. The AI node locking function additionally demonstrates that the declare that solver outputs are ineffective is solely not true!
Take a look at the complete hand, which is obtainable on YouTube across the 18:18 mark.
If you wish to check out this AI function on GTO Wizard to review your individual arms, click on the hyperlink to obtain GTO Wizard totally free.
