Excessive-stakes crusher and reigning GPI Feminine Participant of the Yr Kristen Foxen made a giant fold with pocket kings deep within the Triton Poker Jeju $100,000 buy-in Important Occasion that had the entire poker world speaking.
Many gamers had their ideas on the fold, which ended up being the unsuitable transfer as she had the very best hand in what would have been a three-way all in, however what does the maths say? Let’s examine utilizing GTO Wizard.
Occasion Data
Occasion: $100K Triton Jeju Important Occasion Last TablePlayers Left: 9/178Blind Ranges: 75,000/150,000 (150,000 BB ante)
Payouts:1st: $3,766,0002nd: $2,535,0003rd: $1,787,0004th: $1,449,0005th: $1,146,0006th: $870,0007th: $635,0008th: $464,0009th: $385,000
Stack Sizes and Positions
Felipe Ketzer (UTG): 7.83bb (1,175,000)Elton Tsang (UTG+1/EP): 35.8bb (5,375,000) Not 28bbPunnat Punsri (UTG+2/MP1): 34.3bb (5,145,000)Philip Sternheimer (UTG+3/MP2): 25.3bb (3,800,000)Tom Fuchs (HJ): 23.3bb (3,500,000)Kristen Foxen (CO): 19.3bb (2,900,000)Sean Winter (BTN): 31.3bb (4,700,000)Xu Yang (SB): 26.7bb (4,000,000)Ben Tollerene (BB): 88.7bb (13,300,000)
Preflop Motion
Felipe Ketzer begins the hand by shifting all-in for 1,175,000 (7.83bb) from UTG with Q♠J♠.
Elton Tsang, subsequent to behave from UTG+1, seems to be down at 10♦10♥ and elects to flat-call with a stack of 5,375,000 (35.8bb).
Motion folds round to Philip Sternheimer in UTG+3 (MP2), who finds J♣J♦ and decides to reshove for 3,775,000 (25.3bb).
That leaves Foxen within the CO, who seems to be down at Okay♣Okay♠ with 2,900,000 (19.3bb). After going deep into the tank, she ultimately finds a fold.
The motion folds again to Tsang, who additionally decides to fold his pocket tens.
Felipe Ketzer: Q♠J♠Philip Sternheimer: J♣J♦
Flop: 9♣5♥2♥Flip: Okay♦River:2♠
Sternheimer wins the three,900,000 pot with two pair, jacks and twos, whereas Ketzer is eradicated in ninth place for $385,000. Foxen would have gained with a set of kings.
Take a look at the complete hand right here:
Folding kings was clearly incorrect in recreation, however was it really the fitting play in idea in response to the solver?
Earlier than analysing the spot from an ICM perspective, I’ll first use GTO Wizard’s new multiway preflop AI function to see how this hand ought to be performed in chip EV.
Chip EV Resolution
UTG Vary
QJs EV
UTG+1 Response
TT EV
UTG+3/MP2 Response
JJ EV
CO Response
KK EV
UTG+1 Response vs UTG & UTG+3 All-ins
TT EV
With out ICM concerns, kings would by no means be a fold, and as performed, tens wouldn’t be both when dealing with the 2 all-ins. QJs and JJ have been each performed accurately in response to chip EV.
However let’s see how this modifications as soon as ICM is taken into consideration.
ICM Resolution
Earlier than we take a look at the advisable methods from the ICM solver, let’s first study the bubble elements, which have a large affect on the gamers’ total methods on this spot.
Bubble Components
What’s a Bubble Issue and Danger Premium in Poker?
Bubble Issue:
Measures how a lot a participant’s technique ought to tighten when they’re near a payout (the “bubble”).The next bubble issue means dropping chips could be very expensive, so that you want stronger palms to play massive pots.
Danger Premium:
The additional fairness a hand must proceed in a spot as a result of dropping chips is dearer than traditional.In different phrases, it’s the penalty for risking chips below ICM, the upper the chance premium, the stronger your hand have to be to play aggressively.
UTG Vary
QJs remains to be a worthwhile jam below ICM.
QJs $EV
Jamming all-in is the best $EV play, producing +$13,036.
UTG+1 Response
Tens remains to be a worthwhile name below ICM.
TT $EV
Calling is the best $EV play, producing +$14,112.
UTG+3/MP2 Response
The primary mistake within the hand happens right here, as JJ is a pure fold on this spot.
JJ $EV
Calling is the bottom $EV play, dropping $20,470.
Now for the second you’ve been ready for… is KK a fold on this spot in response to the solver?
CO Response
The reply, sadly for Foxen, is that KK is a pure name on this spot.
KK $EV
Calling is the best $EV play, producing +$47,173, which means her fold price her $47,173 in EV.
UTG+1 Response vs UTG & UTG+3 All-ins
Tens is now not a worthwhile name below ICM.
TT $EV
Folding being the best $EV play and calling would lose -$39,635.
Conclusion
Was KK the right fold in response to the solver? Sadly for Foxen, it was not. Folding KK on this spot price her $47,173 in EV.
It is usually value noting that this evaluation assumes a UTG+3 vary that doesn’t embrace JJ. If JJ have been included in that vary, calling with KK would turn into much more worthwhile when it comes to $EV.
This hand highlights the complexity of ICM and reveals that even the very best gamers on this planet could make errors on the desk. That mentioned, Foxen is likely one of the greatest for a purpose, and we’re certain she’s going to study from this spot and proceed to carry out at future Triton ultimate tables.
If you want to enhance your ICM recreation and reduce expensive errors on the ultimate desk, use the hyperlink under to strive GTO Wizard for your self.
Lukas Robinson
WPT World Streamer
