Was Folding Pocket Nines to a Three-Bet at This $10K Online Final Table Too Tight?

Folding pocket nines at a remaining desk hardly ever feels comfy, particularly when stacks are shallow and pay jumps are looming. However in high-pressure ICM spots, even robust palms can grow to be marginal.

WPT International streamer Lukas “RobinPoker” Robinson used GTO Wizard to analyse a tough preflop resolution from a 2026 $10,300 GGMillion$ Last Desk, the place Fahredin Mustafov opened with pocket nines and confronted a three-bet from the small blind.

The hand raised a number of key questions. Was the three-bet sizing right? Ought to pocket nines ever fold right here? And what modifications if the small blind strikes all-in as an alternative?

The Hand

The hand came about eight-handed on the GGMillion$ Last Desk, with blinds at 35,000/70,000 and $493,294 awaiting the winner. A number of gamers have been sitting on quick stacks between 15 and 21 large blinds, creating huge ICM stress throughout the desk.

Stack Sizes and Positions

Mustafov opened the motion from below the gun with 16.2 large blinds, whereas “bzvz” sat within the small blind with simply over 15 large blinds.

With a number of quick stacks and enormous pay jumps nonetheless to come back, each resolution carried vital event fairness implications.

GGMillion$ Last Desk Payouts

Mustafov opened to 140,000 from below the gun holding 9♥9♦. From the small blind, “bzvz” responded with a three-bet to 315,000 holding A♥A♦.

After taking time to think about his choices, Mustafov elected to fold pocket nines. Whereas the fold could appear cautious at first look, solver evaluation reveals the state of affairs is much extra nuanced.

Pre-Flop Evaluation

Mustafov’s open with pocket nines is solver-approved. In actual fact, pocket nines signify the bottom pocket pair that’s opened purely from UTG on this configuration.

The main target shortly shifts to the small blind’s response.

“Bzvz”’s three-bet with aces to 315,000 can also be solver-approved, and extra importantly, the sizing is almost good.

The solver constantly prefers a 4.5 large blind three-bet measurement with aces on this configuration, producing the very best $EV general (anticipated worth).

To verify the consistency of this poker technique, an identical GGMillion$ final-table simulation was run utilizing GTO Wizard. Regardless of slight variations in stack depth, the solver as soon as once more favoured the 4.5 large blind sizing with pocket aces.

Was the Three-Wager Dimension Appropriate?

This solutions the primary key query: Was the Three-bet sizing right?

Sure. The 4.5bb sizing utilized by “bzvz” is probably the most optimum selection general, outperforming a direct all-in by way of anticipated worth.

Ought to Pocket Nines Fold to This Three-Wager?

The subsequent query focuses on Mustafov’s resolution.

Dealing with the 4.5 large blind three-bet, the solver strongly prefers persevering with with pocket nines slightly than folding.

Utilizing each GTO Wizard and ICM modelling software program, pocket nines are proven to generate larger EV when performed aggressively. In some simulations, the solver recommends a pure name, whereas in others it mixes between calling and shoving all-in.

In neither simulation does pocket nines fold.

Which means Mustafov’s fold — whereas comprehensible below stress — is technically a theoretical mistake.

Pocket nines stay robust sufficient to proceed in opposition to this sizing, even below heavy ICM stress.

What If the Small Blind Jammed As a substitute?

The ultimate query explores an alternate situation.

If “bzvz” had moved all-in as an alternative of utilizing the 4.5 large blind three-bet sizing, the solver’s advice modifications dramatically.

Towards an all-in three-bet, pocket nines turns into a fold at very excessive frequency. Each solver outputs present that calling loses EV on this state of affairs, which means folding can be the right theoretical response.

In different phrases, the distinction between a small three-bet and an all-in dramatically modifications the optimum technique.

That distinction highlights simply how vital wager sizing turns into in final-table environments.

Why This Spot Issues

This hand completely illustrates how refined variations in sizing can shift optimum selections at a remaining desk.

A 4.5 large blind three-bet with aces generates extra worth than jamming instantly, whereas additionally forcing opponents into troublesome selections with medium-strength palms like pocket nines.

For Mustafov, the fold was comprehensible given the chance of elimination. Nevertheless, solver outputs present that persevering with — both by calling or shoving — would have been extra worthwhile in principle.

Last Verdict

So, was folding pocket nines the right play?

Towards the precise 4.5 large blind three-bet sizing used in-game, the reply is not any. Pocket nines ought to proceed slightly than fold.

Nevertheless, had the small blind moved all-in as an alternative, folding would have been the right play.

This hand highlights one of the crucial vital classes in event poker: wager sizing shapes selections. Even with the identical playing cards, altering the dimensions of a three-bet can utterly alter the right technique.

For gamers seeking to enhance their final-table selections, instruments like GTO Wizard make it potential to discover these eventualities intimately and perceive how small changes create massive EV swings.

Lukas “RobinPoker” Robinson is an expert poker participant, streamer and content material creator. In 2021, he gained vital recognition by setting a Twitch world document, streaming 1,000 hours of on-line poker over 100 days. Robinson additionally participated within the inaugural season of “Recreation of Gold.”