Adrian Mateos is among the greatest poker match gamers on the earth. A daily on the earth of high-stakes tournaments, dwell and on-line, Mateos is thought for his fearless but analytical strategy to the sport; he not often places a foot unsuitable on the desk. Mateos navigated his strategy to the ultimate desk of a $10,300 GGMillion$ on-line at GGPoker, the place he discovered himself in an attention-grabbing hand in opposition to Estonian chess guru Ottomar Ladva.
PokerNews ambassador Lukas “RobinPoker” Robinson has delved deep into the hand in query, utilizing the highly effective GTO Wizard device to see if Mateos and Ladva’s play was or was not GTO-approved. First, let’s set the scene.
Eight gamers stay on the closing desk, blinds are 25,000/50,000 with a 6,000 operating ante. Every of the eight gamers has locked in $63,204 for his or her efforts, with the eventual champion taking house $346,903.
Within the hand in query, Mateos is seated within the hijack with nearly 53 huge blinds, the third-largest stack on the desk. Ladva is sat within the huge blind with 82.7 huge blinds, solely a handful of massive blinds away from the chip chief.
Pre-flop Motion
Adrian Mateos opened to 110,000 from the hijack (HJ) holding A♦2♦. Ottomar Ladva defended from the Massive Blind (BB) with J♠6♠.
Put up-Flop
Flop (293,000 Pot): J♦9♠3♠
Motion: Ladva checked. Mateos guess 150,000. Ladva known as.
Flip (593,000 Pot): 9♦
Motion: Ladva donk-bets 148,250. Mateos calls.
River (889,500 Pot): J♥
Motion: Ladva guess 444,750. Mateos tank known as. Ladva received a 1,779,000 pot with a full home.
A difficult river resolution for Adrian Mateos, exhibiting that even for the perfect gamers on the earth, it by no means comes straightforward. Let’s break down this hand utilizing the GTO Wizard solver to see whether or not each gamers performed it accurately in line with principle.
Pre-flop Evaluation
Adrian Mateos opened to 110,000 from the HJ holding A♦2♦. GTO Authorised ✔️
Ottomar Ladva defended from the BB with J♠6♠. GTO Authorised ✔️
Each gamers made normal preflop performs. Now let’s analyse their postflop choices.
Put up-flop Evaluation
Flop (293,000 Pot): J♦9♠3♠
Ladva checked the flop. GTO Authorised ✔️
The BB has zero donk-bets on this explicit flop.
Mateos guess 150,000 on the flop. GTO Authorised ✔️
Many fingers within the HJ’s vary miss this flop, so it is smart to examine often on this board. Bigger guess sizes are additionally used, because the fingers which can be betting for worth want further safety in opposition to the BB’s vary on this particular texture.
Really helpful Technique and EV for A2s on the flop:
The solver recommends mixing between checking and betting, because the EV of every play is sort of an identical. Nevertheless, it’s value noting that A2s is the best frequency betting hand on this flop of all of the bluffing candidates.
Ladva known as the 150,000 flop guess. GTO Authorised ✔️
Commonplace name on the flop with J6s.
Flip (593,000 Pot): 9♦
Ladva donk-bet 148,250 with J♠6♠. GTO Authorised ✔️
BB has considerably extra mixtures of nines of their vary in comparison with HJ, making this probably the greatest attainable flip playing cards for them.Ladva opts for the donk guess in-game, a play permitted by the GTO Wizard solver.
Really helpful Technique and EV for J6s on the flip:
As you may see, a small quantity of checking is really helpful, and J♠6♠ can really combine between betting and checking. General, nonetheless, betting is used far more often with the BB vary on this flip.
Mateos calls the 148,250 guess on the flip with A♦2♦. GTO Authorised ✔️
The solver doesn’t advocate folding a lot in opposition to this flip guess, with folds coming principally from weak Ace and King excessive fingers that haven’t any attracts.
Flush attracts within the HJ’s vary:
Above, you may see that not one of the flush attracts within the HJ’s vary select to fold in opposition to this small flip guess.
Really helpful Technique and EV for A2s on the flip:
Apparently, A♦2♦ can combine between elevating and calling, because it helps steadiness the small proportion of worth raises with some bluffs.
River (889,500 Pot): J♥
Ladva bets 444,750 on the river with J♠6♠. GTO Authorised ✔️
The solver’s really helpful technique for the BB on the river:
Really helpful Wager Sizes and EV for J6s on the river:
Above, you may see that the solver’s really helpful guess measurement is strictly 50%, which Ladva used in-game. The EV variations for J♠6♠ throughout the assorted sizes present that the 50% measurement supplies the best general EV. It’s spectacular to see Ladva not solely extract most worth from probably the greatest gamers on the earth, but in addition play the hand practically completely in line with the GTO Wizard solver.
Mateos known as the 444,750 guess on the river with A♦2♦. GTO Authorised ✔️
The solver’s really helpful technique for the HJ on the river vs the 50% guess:
Really helpful Technique and EV for A2s on the river:
Though Mateos was finally unsuitable to name with A♦2♦ in-game, the decision is right in principle. Let’s break down why that is the case.
All of the ‘No Made Palms’ within the BB’s betting vary:
Above, you may see all of the bluffs within the BB’s vary. A2s beats each single one in every of these bluff combos, and it doesn’t block a lot of them both.
In-game, Mateos needed to resolve whether or not he believed his opponents had sufficient of those bluffs of their vary to justify calling with A♦2♦.
Finally, he concluded that they did and selected to name. Whereas this name was technically unsuitable on this hand, since his opponent had a full home; it’s worthwhile in the long term in opposition to a succesful opponent, because the EV of calling is greater than folding on this spot. That is what the perfect on the earth attempt to concentrate on general when making choices like this.
You’ll be able to try my full GTO Wizard evaluation by way of this hyperlink whereas fast-forwarding to 39:40 on this YouTube video will allow you to look at the hand go down in real-time.
Lukas Robinson
PokerNews Ambassador
