I’m taking part in Day 1 of the €5,300 EPT Malta Fundamental Occasion, seated at a desk stuffed with crushers. Certainly one of them is Spanish professional Gerard Carbo, contemporary off a second-place end within the €1,650 EPT Malta Open Fundamental Occasion for €264,650.
We’ve been battling all day. I’ve bluffed him twice in large pots, and each occasions he’s gone deep into the tank earlier than discovering spectacular calls. Regardless of these setbacks, I’m nonetheless within the event and grinding away once I look down at pocket queens. I open the motion, and as soon as once more, Carbo responds with a 3-bet.
Let’s get into the hand, beginning with the fundamentals.
Hand Fundamentals
Occasion: 2025 €5,300 EPT Malta Fundamental Occasion Day 1 Blind Ranges: 400/800 – 800 (BB Ante)
Stack Sizes and Positions
Me (CO): 60,000 (75bb) Gerard Carbo (SB): 85,000 (106bb)
Preflop Motion
I open to 1.6K within the CO holding Q♥Q♦. Gerard Carbo three-bets to six,400. I four-bet to 14,000 and Carbo calls.
Postflop Motion
Flop (30,000 Pot): 6♥6♦2♦
Motion: They examine. I guess 7,500. They name.
Flip (45,000 Pot): 7♠
Motion: They examine. I guess 15,000. They name.
River (75,000 Pot): J♦
Motion: They examine. I jam for 23,500. They name. I present my Q♦Q♥. They present A♠A♥ and win to knock me out of the event.
Was my river worth guess too skinny versus this sicko? Let’s discover out what the GTO Wizard solver says, and I’ll clarify my thought course of on each avenue.
Preflop Evaluation
I opened to 1,600 within the cutoff with Q♦Q♥: GTO Wizard permitted.
Gerard Carbo three-bet to six,400 with A♠A♥: GTO Wizard permitted.
I four-bet to 14,000 with Q♦Q♥: GTO Wizard permitted.
The solver recommends a blended technique with pocket queens, splitting between name and four-bets. Anticipated worth (EV) of pocket queen combos versus three-bet:
The EV of calling and elevating to 21.94 large blinds is successfully equivalent.
Gerard Carbo calls my four-bet with A♠A♥: GTO Wizard permitted.
Gerard Carbo performed this spot completely, sticking to GTO ideas by simply calling my four-bet. Whereas many gamers within the inhabitants would merely transfer all in right here, aces make for a wonderful name. The hand dominates a lot of my bluffing vary and may nonetheless comfortably get the chips in post-flop on many boards once I maintain palms like queens.
Flatting aces on this spot additionally helps stability a participant’s three-bet calling vary, stopping them from being overly weighted towards medium-strength palms. It’s a pointy adjustment that retains opponents guessing and permits for max worth in opposition to aggressive gamers like me.
Earlier than diving into the preflop evaluation, it’s vital to nodelock my four-betting vary to replicate what I really performed within the recreation, slightly than strictly following the solver’s ideas. This enables me to research the hand from a practical, in-game perspective and see how my choices aligned with GTO ideas.
Solver 4-Betting Vary from the Cutoff
My In-Sport 4-Betting Vary
The nodelocking AI function in GTO Wizard is an unbelievable instrument for reviewing your personal palms. By nodelocking ranges to replicate the palms you’ll really play in a stay recreation, you possibly can see how your vary behaves post-flop. This makes the general sim much more helpful for bettering your personal decision-making and understanding how your real-game tendencies work together with GTO ideas.
Gerard Carbo Nodelocked Calling Vary Versus 4-Wager
I additionally nodelocked Carbo’s calling vary versus my four-bet to raised replicate how he would realistically play in a stay recreation.
Postflop Evaluation
Flop (30,000 Pot): 6♥6♦2♦Carbo checks: GTO Wizard permitted.
No donk-betting on the flop from the small blind.
I guess 7,500 with Q♦Q♥ on the flop: GTO Wizard permitted.
On the flop, the solver recommends betting small together with your total vary. This strategy maximizes effectivity and retains your vary balanced, permitting you to use strain throughout each worth palms and bluffs whereas controlling pot dimension.
Really helpful Wager Sizes and EV for Pocket Queens
The solver suggests utilizing two continuation-bet sizes on the flop: 25% and 15% of the pot. With Q♦Q♥ it prefers the 25% sizing, however the hand nonetheless mixes between each sizes.
Carbo calls the 7,500 guess on the flop with A♠A♥: GTO Wizard permitted.
The solver recommends largely persevering with with a name on this flip, however it does embrace some all-in bluffs or worth jams from palms like QQ, JJ, and powerful flush attracts.
Really helpful Wager Sizes and EV for Pocket Aces
With A♠A♥ on the flop, the solver recommends mixing between a name and jamming all-in. This balanced strategy permits you to extract worth when your opponent has weaker palms whereas nonetheless defending your vary and making use of strain with sturdy holdings.
Flip (45,000 Pot): 7♠
Carbo checks the flip with A♠A♥: GTO Wizard permitted.
Curiously, the solver does counsel some donk bets on the flip. In apply, nonetheless, I believe virtually all gamers at this desk would examine their vary on this spot. For a extra lifelike simulation, I made a decision to nodelock them to a pure examine on this flip card.
I guess 15,000 on the flip with Q♦Q♥: GTO Wizard permitted (barely).
As proven above, the solver’s beneficial technique on the flip is both examine or jam all-in. Whereas there are some smaller bets included, they happen at a really low frequency and are successfully negligible in sensible play.
Really helpful Wager Sizes and EV for Pocket Queens
You possibly can see that the 32% geometric guess is used at a really low frequency from all QQ combos on the flip. The truth is, checking the flip with Q♦Q♥ really produces extra EV than making the 32% guess.
My nodelocked flip vary:
It’s precious to determine the place you deviated from the solver’s beneficial technique. Nonetheless, when you play off-tree and take a distinct line on one avenue, it turns into important to nodelock that avenue to the technique you really used in-game. This lets you see how the solver recommends your vary performs on the following avenue. In conditions like this hand, nodelocking with the GTO Wizard AI function is very essential, because it gives a practical and actionable evaluation of your choices.
Carbo calls the 15,000 guess on the flip with A♠A♥: GTO Wizard permitted.
The solver recommends largely calling together with your persevering with vary on the flip, however there are additionally some all-in strains from palms like AA, journeys, and powerful flush attracts. This combine helps stability your vary and ensures that opponents can’t simply exploit your flip technique.
Really helpful Wager Sizes and EV for Pocket Aces
Right here, going all-in with A♠A♥ produces the best general EV, however the solver nonetheless recommends mixing between a name and an all-in.
River (75,000 Pot): J♦
Carbo checks the river with A♠A♥: GTO disapproved.
The solver now recommends that the small blind donk guess all-in on this river card. Why is that? Let’s take a better take a look at the reasoning behind this line.
Utilizing GTO Wizard’s vary comparability function, you possibly can see that this particular river card shifts EV and fairness closely in favor of the small blind’s vary in comparison with the cutoff’s vary. The small blind now holds all of the flushes, whereas I don’t, since I by no means guess flush attracts on the flip. This disparity helps clarify why the solver prefers a donk-shove on this spot.
I jam for 23,500 on the river with Q♦Q♥: GTO Wizard disapproved.
The solver solely recommends to go all in for worth with A♦Okay♦ and pocket jacks.
The solver exhibits that checking all QQ combos on the river produces increased EV than betting all-in.
Carbo calls my river all in with A♠A♥: GTO Wizard permitted.
At this level, virtually no palms make it to the river that may pure fold to an all-in, except 5-4 suited. This highlights how skinny a river value-bet with QQ actually is on this spot.
The solver really recommends mixing between calling and folding with A♠A♥ on the river vs an all in, however calling produces the best general EV. This was a really well-played hand by Carbo, completely aligned with GTO Wizard’s solver steerage.
Query: Why did I determine to go all-in with Q♦Q♥ on the river right here? Let me break down my thought course of.
On the river, I needed to determine whether or not jamming with Q♦Q♥ would get known as by any worse palms. I’m behind all flushes, journeys, and even JJ, so the potential for worth may be very slim. In my learn, the principle palms I may realistically get worth from had been TT and 99.
Towards most gamers, I’d have checked the river, as TT and 99 would possible fold to an all-in. Carbo, nonetheless, is totally different. He’s a really sturdy participant who understands he should name TT and 99 on the river if I’ve bluffs reminiscent of AK or AQ with a diamond. Given our earlier historical past, the place I bluffed twice on the river and he hero-called accurately each occasions, he is aware of that I can have bluffs on this spot.
If I didn’t maintain a diamond, I possible would have checked again QQ even in opposition to Carbo, since this offers him extra flush combos in his vary. Within the warmth of the second, I failed to totally account for the variety of flushes he may have. I assumed many suited connectors that now made a flush on the river would have folded preflop or on the flip.
Even when we take away these combos from his vary, the solver recommends folding TT and 99 on the flip anyway, which means these had been the one worse palms that would name an all-in on the river they usually aren’t really in his vary at this level.
Conclusion
The primary query I needed to reply utilizing the GTO Wizard solver was: Is my river jam too skinny with Q♦Q♥? The reply is most undoubtedly sure.
Gerard Carbo performed this hand practically completely in line with the solver, whereas I didn’t. This hand demonstrated each in-game and in post-hand evaluation that there are a number of ranges to this recreation. Carbo is working at a really excessive stage, and his outcomes communicate for themselves. I, however, have loads of areas to enhance, and that’s completely tremendous.
The secret’s to be trustworthy with your self, determine your leaks, and use instruments like GTO Wizard to review and develop your recreation.
Lukas Robinson
PokerNews Ambassador
