Common Leisure Corp. (UE) has revised its 2025 earnings forecast downward, signaling a difficult yr forward for the corporate. The gaming and leisure big, which operates casinos and gaming machines in each Japan and the Philippines, has seen its EBITDA expectations for 2025 fall considerably. In response to analysts from S&P International Scores, UE’s company-wide EBITDA is anticipated to drop to ¥18 billion (US$115 million) in 2025, down from ¥21.2 billion in 2024. Regardless of efforts to stabilize its core operations, the corporate faces continued headwinds, with a restoration forecasted to stay sluggish till 2026.
On line casino Resort Enterprise Struggles within the Philippines
Probably the most vital contributor to the corporate’s downturn is its on line casino resort operations within the Philippines, particularly Tiger Resort, Leisure and Leisure Inc., UE’s subsidiary. The on line casino resort has confronted a gradual decline in gross gaming income (GGR), with double-digit declines year-on-year for a number of consecutive durations. This decline has been pushed by diminished VIP buyer exercise, fewer worldwide guests—notably from China—and rising competitors throughout the native on line casino market.
S&P International expects the on line casino resort’s EBITDA to fall to ¥12 billion in 2025, a considerable drop from the ¥19 billion recorded in 2024, which already marked a decline in efficiency. Regardless of these challenges, analysts stay cautiously optimistic about future restoration efforts. “The corporate will proceed efforts to revive and stabilize efficiency, aiming to draw extra prospects, although profitability will doubtless stay pressured by increased advertising bills,” stated the report.
UE’s gaming machines division, working in Japan, has additionally confronted difficulties within the wake of its 2024 failure to move compliance checks for brand new fashions. Gross sales throughout the division have been unpredictable, and whereas there may be some expectation that the division might stabilize within the coming years, the forecast for 2025 stays modest. S&P International anticipates EBITDA of roughly ¥12 billion in 2025, which is a considerable drop from the ¥25 billion generated in 2023.
Regardless of these challenges, the corporate’s gaming machines enterprise is projected to see some restoration after 2025, with EBITDA prone to stabilize round ¥15 billion in 2026. Nevertheless, even this stabilization would nonetheless characterize solely round 60% of the extent seen in 2023.
Debt and Liquidity Issues Stay
One of many main monetary issues for UE is its excessive debt load. The corporate’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio is anticipated to deteriorate to round 10x by the tip of 2025, up from 8.9x on the finish of 2024. This rise within the ratio indicators a heavier burden for the corporate by way of debt compensation and monetary sustainability. S&P International forecasts that this ratio will stay elevated for a minimum of one other yr, even with a projected restoration in EBITDA from 2026 onward.
Regardless of these issues, the corporate’s liquidity is taken into account manageable within the quick time period. UE’s money and deposits grew to ¥27.4 billion by the tip of September 2025, up from ¥21.2 billion on the finish of March 2025, largely as a result of asset gross sales and compensation funds. With comparatively low debt maturities anticipated over the subsequent 12 months—between ¥1 billion and ¥2 billion—the corporate ought to have the ability to preserve liquidity with out dealing with quick monetary misery.
Whereas the corporate’s monetary state of affairs stays below strain, S&P International maintains a secure outlook for UE, acknowledging that the corporate has applied measures to stabilize its key companies. Nevertheless, the company has warned that additional deterioration in EBITDA or a drop in money reserves under ¥25 billion might result in a downgrade. Given the sluggish restoration trajectory of each UE’s gaming machine and on line casino resort companies, the chance of an improve is low within the close to time period.
