In August, money sport grinder and Hungry Horse Poker founder Marc Goone spent 100 hours learning Alan Keating’s play. The Hustler On line casino Reside commentator walked away impressed with Keating’s money sport expertise.
Earlier this week, Goone turned his consideration to 17-time World Sequence of Poker bracelet winner Phil Hellmuth. After reviewing 100 hours of Hellmuth’s money sport footage, his verdict was far much less flattering, concluding that concern dominated him when the Poker Brat sat on the felt.
In fact, Hellmuth has constructed his legacy in tournaments moderately than money video games, so some may say the comparability is unfair. Nonetheless, the self-proclaimed “White Magic” specialist has lengthy claimed he’s among the many greatest in each arenas, claims that Goone’s evaluation might power him to rethink.
Hellmuth’s Money Sport Poker Stats
The numbers don’t paint a fairly image. Based on knowledge compiled by HighRollPoker.com, throughout almost 600 hours of livestreamed money video games courting again to 2006, Phil Hellmuth has dropped greater than $825,000, averaging –$1,402 an hour and –3.71 large blinds per hour.
There are some profitable stretches, most notably $88,325 on Poker After Darkish, $66,200 on No Gamble No Future, and $53,060 on PokerGO. Nonetheless, they’re dwarfed by large losses elsewhere. The steepest got here on PokerStars’ The Large Sport (–$422,600) and HCL (–$273,575), which collectively account for almost all of his downswing.
Analyzing Hellmuth’s Money Sport Poker Abilities
When breaking down Hellmuth’s sport, Goone didn’t maintain again. “This leak bleeds cash in right this moment’s video games… I see gamers at $2/$5 and $5/$10 each single day questioning why they will’t transfer up [in stakes],” he stated.
Goone pinpointed the leak as concern, arguing that Hellmuth performs “scared poker.” The primary crimson flag, in accordance with Goone, was Hellmuth’s overly cautious preflop method. He steered that Hellmuth does not wish to must make a tricky determination and a few examples present that concern could also be guiding Hellmuth’s actions.
The primary instance exhibits Hellmuth enjoying on HCL with the likes of Keating and businessmen Stanley Choi and Chamath Palihapitiya.
Enjoying $100/$200, Hellmuth opened Ok♠Ok♦ beneath the gun to $800. Alan Keating and Chamath Palihapitiya referred to as from the button and large blind earlier than Stanley Choi three-bet to $5,200. Hellmuth snap-called with out even pausing to think about a four-bet.
Goone defined the state of affairs: “On this configuration, an under-the-gun vs. large blind in equilibrium, positive pocket kings is meant to be flatted more often than not on this tight vs. tight configuration. However we’re enjoying towards Stanley Choi, who’s aggressive. They’re enjoying on stream the place gamers are going to three-bet a lot wider.”
So why didn’t Hellmuth even take into consideration placing in a four-bet? “My guess is as a result of if Hellmuth four-bets and will get five-bet or jammed on, he has a tricky determination. He needs to keep away from robust choices as a result of he’s scared to make them.”
Extra arms adopted, with Hellmuth taking a equally passive method holding Large Slick. Somewhat than making use of stress, he repeatedly flatted raises, smooth-called three-bets, and on one event even folded ace-king when dealing with a squeeze.
Hellmuth’s ire of robust choices on flops have been additionally highlighted, and Goone introduced up a well-known hand between Hellmuth and Doug Polk, the place the latter folded the second nuts to Hellmuth all-in flop guess.
Hellmuth had the nut-straight with Q♠10♥ on the J♠9♠8♥ flop, the place Polk had 10♦7♣ and regarded destined to get stacked.
Polk and Hellmuth checked from the straddle and hijack respectively, the place James Bord fired out for $2,000. Polk made it $7,000 earlier than Hellmuth ripped in his stack of $97,200. Bord rapidly acquired out of the best way, and after a ton of pondering time, Polk made what could possibly be thought-about the best fold in poker historical past.
“The one rationalization for it is because he does not wish to must play turns and rivers. He does not know what to do if the board pairs or if a spade rolls out and he does not wish to must make that robust determination later. He simply chops off his EV.
“Polk’s by no means made an exploit in his total life and can do what the solver says on this state of affairs. Polk finds the fold as a result of this line so completely ridiculous and as soon as once more Hellmuth letting concern override truly getting cash.
Subsequent, Goone argued that Hellmuth’s cautiousness stems from a concern of trying silly. He highlighted one occasion the place Hellmuth sat in a $25/$50/$100 sport with solely a $5,000 stack—simply 50 large blinds—in a lineup filled with gamers “who do not know tips on how to play poker.”
“Hellmuth has this innate concern of trying silly when deep,” Goone stated. “He doesn’t wish to make a giant blunder, he doesn’t wish to make a nasty determination. So as a substitute, he simply clips the entire EV he must be incomes on this lineup and buys in extremely quick as a substitute—as a result of he simply doesn’t wish to appear to be a dummy.”
Goone rounded out his critique by pointing to different recurring fears in Hellmuth’s sport. He argued that the all-time main bracelet winner typically performs as if he’s afraid of not getting paid off in large pots, whereas additionally displaying indicators of a concern of being pushed round.
Mixed with earlier examples of passivity and short-stacking, Goone steered that these tendencies add as much as a mode that leaves vital cash on the desk in fashionable high-stakes money video games.
Calum Grant
Senior Editor & Reside Occasions Govt
