GTO Wizard: Was Suarez’s AQ Call Too Thin at the EPT Barcelona Final Table?

On the remaining desk of the €5,300 EPT Barcelona Fundamental Occasion, Anton Suarez confronted a nightmare river choice in opposition to eventual champion Thomas Eychenne. Holding prime pair, prime kicker with ace-queen, Suarez discovered himself staring down an all-in shove for his event life after making an enormous river guess.

Six gamers remained, with €1.4 million up prime and €291,800 assured. Suarez ultimately referred to as, and it price him his event. However was the decision truly incorrect? Utilizing GTO Wizard, broke down each avenue to see the place idea and actuality diverged.

Suarez opened the button for 500,000 holding A♥Q♣. Eychenne defended his large blind with 5♥4♥.

The flop got here 10♥5♦3♠. Each gamers checked.

The flip introduced the Q♥, giving Suarez prime pair and Eychenne a flush draw with a pair. Eychenne checked, Suarez guess 750,000, and Eychenne referred to as.

The river paired the board with the 5♣. Eychenne checked his journeys, Suarez fired 2,500,000 into 2,875,000, and Eychenne responded with a shove. Suarez used three timebanks earlier than calling off his remaining 1,030,000. Eychenne tabled his successful hand and eradicated Suarez in sixth place for €291,800.

Pre-Flop Evaluation

Suarez’s button open with A♥Q♣ is normal. The solver absolutely approves this elevate, particularly with six gamers remaining and a large button vary.

Eychenne’s name with 5♥4♥ can be solver-approved. In opposition to a 2 large blind button open, defending suited connectors from the large blind maintains correct pot odds and playability. Each gamers started the hand on stable theoretical footing.

Flop Evaluation

The flop of 10♥5♦3♠ went check-check. Eychenne’s examine is GTO accepted however solver output reveals that Suarez’s check-back with A♥Q♣ is barely off-book.

GTO Wizard prefers continuation betting on this texture at small to medium sizes, roughly 18%, 25%, or 67% pot.

Checking isn’t a serious mistake, as you’ll be able to see from the small EV distinction above, however betting helps you steadiness your whole vary on the flop. This makes the board a lot simpler to play, since in-game it’s tough to maintain your checking vary balanced, particularly when it’s solely 6.5% of your vary that’s advisable to examine, and also you don’t wish to find yourself checking solely weak holdings, as this is able to be very simple to take advantage of.

In brief, betting the flop would simplify the hand and shield Suarez’s vary.

Flip Evaluation

The Q♥ improves Suarez to prime pair, prime kicker and provides Eychenne extra fairness with a flush draw and center pair.

Eychenne’s examine is solver-approved as the large blind’s vary remains to be behind the button’s on this card.

Suarez’s choice to guess the flip is appropriate, however the sizing isn’t very best. GTO Wizard recommends a 100% pot guess, not the 50% sizing Suarez selected. The bigger guess achieves larger EV and higher units up a geometrical river shove.

A geometrical guess dimension retains your street-by-street sizing constant so stacks naturally go in by the river, which is perfect when your vary is polarised. Suarez’s smaller sizing reduces fold fairness and leaves awkward stack depth for the river.

Eychenne’s name is accepted. The solver usually mixes between calls and raises with 54s, sometimes jamming to steadiness worth arms and bluffs.

Combo attracts like this are used as a result of they keep sufficient fairness when referred to as, whereas holding a pair additionally blocks among the prime of the calling vary, resembling units and two pairs. There’s additionally a small likelihood that 5♥4♥ will get referred to as by a worse hand like Ok♥9♥ or J♥9♥, which provides to the EV of the play.

River Evaluation

The 5♣ pairs the board, giving Eychenne journeys. GTO Wizard reveals that the large blind can incorporate small donk bets on this card as a result of it connects extra with their vary than the button’s. Nonetheless, checking stays completely advantageous, as Eychenne did.

Suarez’s 2,500,000 guess into 2,875,000 (round 90% pot) is solver-disapproved. The mannequin reveals AQo both checking or betting smaller (round 67%) to extract worth from weaker queens and mid-pairs whereas avoiding over-committing in opposition to sturdy check-raises. The 90% dimension narrows his perceived vary to sturdy arms and bluffs, which makes it simpler for opponents to play completely in opposition to him.

Eychenne’s shove additionally loses EV in comparison with calling. Regardless of making three-of-a-kind, the solver prefers a flat name. With solely the button containing the nut mixtures (10x10x or QxQx), over-jamming doesn’t improve anticipated worth and carries danger beneath ICM.

Lastly, Suarez’s river name with AQo is solver-disapproved. The hand ought to have checked or used smaller sizing earlier, which might have averted this spot altogether. Even in opposition to a nodelocked vary that features bigger flip bets, AQo struggles to justify a name when going through this all-in.

Conclusion

This hand highlights a basic case of vary distortion by sizing. Whereas each gamers made largely solver-approved choices all through the hand, the river was the place issues diverged.

Suarez’s 90% river guess dimension was by no means advisable and the solver a lot prefers a smaller dimension or examine with AQo combos. Eychenne’s river shove with journeys additionally loses EV in comparison with calling, because the BTN’s vary is polarised and unlikely to repay with worse.

The ultimate takeaway: Eychenne did find yourself getting paid off by worse although, which is a superb in-game instance of utilizing GTO idea as a baseline. In case you can exploit your opponent after they make performs like calling AQ on the river to an all-in, it’s essential determine these alternatives to make the best EV choices total.

PokerNews Ambassador Lukas “RobinPoker” Robinson is an expert poker participant, streamer and content material creator. In 2021, he gained important recognition by setting a Twitch world file, streaming 1,000 hours of on-line poker over 100 days. Robinson additionally participated within the inaugural season of “Recreation of Gold.”