How Close to GTO Does Spraggy Actually Play?

Each choice you make at a remaining desk is essential. However with a $5,550 prime prize on the road, and simply 9 gamers left within the $530 Bounty Builder on PokerStars, Benjamin “Spraggy” Spragg faces a vital choice.

Having flopped prime pair with A♥10♥, he appeared to be ready of power. Nevertheless, a tough board and a river guess from “.COM??LOL” compelled the PokerStars Professional right into a painful fold.

Was this a disciplined survival play pushed by ICM, or did he go away an excessive amount of worth on the desk? Let’s have a look at the numbers and see if the solver agrees together with his choice to put it down.

The Hand

First, let’s take a lookat the Stack Sizes and Positions:

Prebz (UTG): 574,447 (82.1bb) Bounty: $792.97Spraggy (UTG+1): 398,583 (56.9bb) Bounty: $843.75Shadissimo (UTG+2): 487,655 (69.7bb) Bounty: $718.75Yurasov1990 (LJ): 453,998 (64.9bb) Bounty: $750Wisopekeno (HJ): 65,755 (9.4bb) Bounty: $125Juswhackit (CO): 166,798 (23.8bb) Bounty: $671.88Ug0tROBbed (BTN): 171,316 (24.5bb) Bounty: $375.COM??LOL (SB): 263,157 (37.6bb) Bounty: $187.50Edercampana (BB): 135,416 (19.3bb) Bounty: $375

Spraggy opens to fifteen,400 from UTG+1 holding A♥10♥ and .COM??LOL calls within the SB. Heads-up to a flop.

On a flop of A♦4♦3♥, “.COM??LOL” checks and Spraggy bets 10,962 right into a pot of 45,675. His opponent calls.

The flip was the 5♣ and each gamers checked. The rive was the 9♠ and “.COM??LOL” bets 42,000 into 67,599. Spraggy opts to fold.

We’ll by no means know what “.COM??LOL” was holding, as their hand was not proven, however we will analyse Spraggy’s choice to see whether or not it aligns with the GTO Wizard solver.

Pre-flop Evaluation

Spraggy’s open is GTO permitted, with all suited Ax fingers opening from his place on the desk.

Spraggy Opening Range — Spraggy Opening Vary

Solver Steered SB Pre-flop Vary vs Open:

SB preflop range vs Spraggy Open — SB preflop vary vs Spraggy Open

The SB’s flatting vary on this spot is capped and condensed, largely consisting of medium-strength fingers similar to center pocket pairs, suited broadways, and suited Ax. Notably, lots of the A3-A6s combos are 3-bet preflop, which turns into an essential element later within the hand.

Put up-Flop Evaluation

SB strategy on the flop — SB technique on the flop

On the A♦4♦3♥ flop, the solver recommends checking the complete vary right here out of the small blind, which aligns with how most gamers method this flop from the SB.

Spraggy then bets 10,962 having flopped prime pair. The solver recommends a heavy checking technique from UTG1 on this spot.

Spraggy flop strategy vs check — Spraggy flop technique vs examine

Really useful Technique and EV for ATs on the flop:

ATs is definitely most worthwhile as a examine on this spot, though the solver does combine in some low-frequency bets utilizing the 25% and 67% sizes.

So why does UTG+1 have such a excessive checking frequency of round 70% on this flop? Let’s evaluate the ranges.

SB vs UTG+1 Vary Comparability on this flop:

Flop range comparison — Flop vary comparability

Regardless of holding a slight fairness and EV edge, UTG+1 checks at a excessive frequency right here as a result of:

The SB’s capped, condensed vary realises fairness extraordinarily nicely on this textureUTG+1 lacks a transparent nut benefit, regardless of a small fairness leadBetting forces UTG+1 to over-bluff marginal handsFinal desk ICM closely penalises constructing pots with out robust handsChecking balances the general checking vary on this board texture and permits UTG+1 to use strain extra effectively on later streets

Solver Steered SB Flop Calling Vary vs 10,962 guess:

SB flop strategy vs UTG1 Bet — SB flop technique vs UTG1 Guess

An essential facet of this vary is that flopped units of 44 and 33 are check-raising this flop at a excessive frequency vs this guess dimension, which is one other essential consideration for future streets.

The flip was the 5♣ and each gamers checked.

Solver Steered SB Flip Vary:

SB strategy on the turn — SB technique on the flip

As soon as once more, the solver recommends a pure examine on the flip.

Spraggy then checks again, with the solver now recommending a polarised betting technique on the flip.

Spraggy strategy on the turn — Spraggy technique on the flip

What’s a Polarised betting technique?

A method the place you guess solely your very robust fingers and your bluffs, whereas checking all medium-strength fingers.The purpose is to maximise worth with one of the best fingers and apply strain with bluffs, making it tough for opponents to take advantage of your vary.

Really useful Technique and EV for ATs on the flip:

ATs is a pure examine on this flip card. When betting, the solver prefers a 100% pot dimension, which units up a geometrical shove on the river.

What’s a geometrical guess dimension?A geometrical guess dimension is one the place you guess a constant share of the pot on every avenue in order that stacks find yourself successfully going all-in on the river. This method is perfect when your vary is completely polarized, because it maximizes minimal protection frequency (MDF) whereas guaranteeing that the complete stacks are dedicated by the river.

On the 9♠ river, “.COM??LOL” bets 42,000. The 62% sizing utilized in sport shouldn’t be optimum, because the solver as an alternative prefers both a 25% block guess or a 175% overbet.

Suggested sizings on the river from SB — Steered sizings on the river from SB

Solver Steered SB River Betting Vary:

Spraggy finally folds to the guess. As proven beneath, calling with all Ax combos is worthwhile vs this guess dimension. Whereas the board might seem intimidating, the SB holds only a few two-pair combos, units, or straights of their vary.

Spraggy river strategy vs bet — Spraggy river technique vs guess

$EV for ATs on the river:

Calling with A♥10♥ right here vs this dimension generates $74.46 in revenue, whereas folding ends in $0. Curiously, each a 50% increase and an all-in produce greater $EV than folding on this spot.

What I’m going to do subsequent is nodelock the SB to incorporate extra fingers betting the 62% dimension that was utilized in sport, after which see how this impacts the $EV of ATs.

Nodelocked 62% SB betting vary:

Nodelocked SB 62% Betting Range — Nodelocked SB 62% Betting Vary

I nodelocked the vary in order that the 62% guess frequency will increase to 10.9%, up from simply 3.3% beforehand. This extra precisely displays the in-game technique utilized by “.COM??LOL” and permits us to guage a extra optimum response to this sizing from Spraggy’s perspective.

Spraggy Technique vs Nodelocked Vary:

Spraggy river strategy vs nodelocked range — Spraggy river technique vs nodelocked vary

ATs EV on the river vs nodelocked range — ATs EV on the river vs nodelocked vary

Calling with A♥10♥ now generates $86.28 in greenback EV vs this guess dimension and vary.

Conclusion

This hand highlights the complexities of final-table play and the numerous impression ICM has on general technique. Spraggy, one of many world’s largest poker streamers, demonstrates robust GTO understanding all through the hand, up till the river, the place he sadly makes a pricey fold.

If you wish to examine your personal fingers and establish potential leaks in your sport, click on the hyperlink beneath to obtain GTO Wizard totally free right this moment.

Will Shillibier

Managing Editor

Primarily based in the UK, Will began working for PokerNews as a contract dwell reporter in 2015 and joined the full-time workers in 2019. He now works as Managing Editor.

He graduated from the College of Kent in 2017 with a B.A. in German. He additionally holds an NCTJ Diploma in Sports activities Journalism.

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