Macau’s on line casino market started the yr with notable power in its premium mass section, in keeping with January observations revealed by Citigroup. The agency’s proprietary desk survey reported will increase in common spend amongst higher-end mass gamers and recognized extra large-value bettors than in the identical interval final yr, whilst total participant counts declined.
Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau reported that the common wager per premium mass participant reached HKD28,424 (USD3,644), which represented a 41 % enhance from HKD20,160 (USD2,585) in January 2025. Citigroup described the outcome as “positively stunning,” noting that common wagers had been akin to ranges recorded throughout the 2025 Golden Week interval. Complete premium mass wagers noticed reached HKD16 million (USD2.05 million), up 25 % year-on-year, regardless of an 11 % drop in headcount to 564 gamers.
Excessive-Finish Premium Mass Exercise Expands
Citigroup’s survey indicated {that a} bigger share of premium mass spending originated from the highest-value cohort. Twenty-eight gamers had been recognized as “whales” throughout the survey interval, in contrast with 24 a yr earlier. Mixed play from this group totaled HKD8.1 million (USD1.04 million), implying a median of roughly HKD290,000 (USD37,180) per participant, a rise of 49 % year-on-year. Six gamers wagered HKD500,000 (USD64,100) or extra, in contrast with two in January 2025.
The survey’s “Participant of the Month” wagered HKD1 million (USD128,200) on the Horizon Room at Galaxy Macau. Citigroup additionally documented giant wagers at Metropolis of Goals and Wynn Macau, together with particular person performs of HKD850,000 (USD109,000) and HKD640,000 (USD82,100), respectively. The analysts steered that spending by prosperous mainland Chinese language guests continued to assist the section and pointed to a mixture of gaming and non-gaming choices that enchantment to those clients.
On a venue foundation, Galaxy Macau reclaimed the lead in premium mass play in January with a 25 % share, in contrast with 27 % a yr earlier. In accordance with Asia Gaming Transient, Citigroup described the competitors amongst Wynn Macau, Sands China, and MGM China as a “picture end.” Promotional efforts additionally seemed to be underway throughout the survey interval. Live performance ticket incentives had been noticed, and renovation work at mass gaming flooring occurred throughout a number of properties forward of the Lunar New 12 months interval. Citigroup additionally famous that the Pearl Room at Sands Macao had opened, and the Parisian Macao was internet hosting a collaboration with widespread shopper model Pop Mart.
Whale Phase Reinforces Citigroup Findings
A separate replace from Citigroup emphasised positive aspects in whale play volumes. The financial institution reported a 72.3 % year-on-year enhance in whale betting exercise and a 16.7 % rise within the variety of whales noticed. It recorded HKD8.1 million in noticed whale wagers versus HKD4.7 million in January 2025. “We predict it’s secure to say that Macau does have gaming and non-gaming product choices that enchantment to prosperous mainland Chinese language shoppers, who stay keen to spend,” the analysts wrote, including that they encountered “a number of large whales round Macau.”
Whereas survey outcomes highlighted robust start-of-year spending amongst high-value gamers, JP Morgan drew consideration to the broader mixture of gaming income and its implications for operators’ earnings. Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian lower their 2026 EBITDA estimates for Macau’s six operators by a median of three to 4 %. The agency shifted its ranking on SJM Holdings from Impartial to Underweight and on Melco Resorts from Obese to Impartial.
JP Morgan famous that gross gaming income grew 9 % in 2025, beating its earlier 5 % forecast, however EBITDA development reached solely 6 %. Adjusting for VIP-related variance, EBITDA development fell to between 1 and a couple of %. VIP share elevated to 16 % of complete GGR by the top of the fourth quarter, up from 12 % the prior yr. Inside mass gaming, JP Morgan steered that margin yield might have softened attributable to shifts towards premium and super-premium play classes.
Working prices additionally rose. JP Morgan noticed working expense development of roughly 7 % in 2025, in contrast with regular inflation of three %. The financial institution acknowledged that non-gaming occasions, together with concert events and sports activities, supported income however weighed on margins. It added that the height in GGR development throughout the fourth quarter and muted margin growth in latest intervals led it to take a extra cautious stance. JP Morgan indicated that it intends to take care of conservative EBITDA estimates till additional indicators of margin enchancment seem.
