The UK Playing Fee (UKGC) has concluded its four-part analysis venture on unlawful on-line playing, revealing persistent difficulties in precisely assessing the dimensions of the black market. The ultimate report, Estimating the Measurement of the Unlawful On-line Playing Market, compiles months of study into shopper behaviour, threat evaluation, and enforcement efforts, whereas underscoring how restricted knowledge continues to hinder dependable market estimates.
Complexities of Quantifying a Hidden Market
The Fee said that measuring the scale of the unlawful on-line playing market stays methodologically advanced, with knowledge limitations and mandatory assumptions undermining confidence in any single estimate. It in contrast these challenges to these encountered by different authorities our bodies making an attempt to evaluate illicit trades, such because the unlawful tobacco market.
The UKGC explored three strategies for quantifying unlawful playing exercise: the dwell time method, which converts participant engagement knowledge into spending estimates; the channelisation method, which compares regulated and unregulated market participation; and a survey-based method. Nonetheless, it pursued solely the primary two strategies after deeming survey-based knowledge unreliable as a consequence of poor shopper recall of previous playing expenditure.
Each the dwell time and channelisation approaches offered useful insights however in the end fell wanting producing a definitive determine for the scale of Britain’s unlawful market. “Dwell time method permits us to try to transform goal estimates of engagement knowledge utilizing identified knowledge from authorized market,” the report famous, whereas acknowledging that “additional work on these actions is required earlier than we’ll attain a place the place dependable estimates will be revealed.”
Utilizing the dwell time methodology, the Fee reviewed the exercise of 117 gamers who engaged with unlawful playing web sites. Sports activities betting proved to be the most well-liked exercise, accounting for 34% of members, adopted by bingo at 14%, and each slots and instantaneous win video games at 13%. The UKGC cautioned that the small and unrepresentative pattern restricted the reliability of those findings.
Methodology
The regulator additionally examined “Patterns of Play” knowledge inside the authorized market, which revealed a median gross playing yield (GGY) of £1.12 per minute for on line casino video games and £0.32 for slots based mostly on 2018–19 knowledge—figures now thought of outdated. A more moderen dataset confirmed on-line slots GGY per minute remained secure between 2020 and 2025, reaching £0.24 as of March 2025.
In the meantime, the channelisation methodology required verification of net visitors and app utilization knowledge to make sure correct estimates. The UKGC compiled a listing of licensed operators and used analytics from SimilarWeb, although it recognised key limitations—notably the shortage of perception into app-based engagement for unlawful web sites. The regulator emphasised the necessity for cooperation from licensed operators to validate knowledge accuracy.
It additional famous that even small variances in channelisation estimates might considerably alter monetary interpretations. For example, based mostly on an annual GGY of £6.9 billion from April 2023 to March 2024, a 0.5% deviation might equal £34.5 million.
Strengthened Proof Base, Continued Uncertainty
Regardless of the absence of a conclusive determine, the UKGC mentioned its analysis has improved understanding of how unlawful operators operate and why customers interact with them. Findings present motivations fluctuate extensively—starting from lack of information {that a} website is illegitimate to deliberate avoidance of the regulated market as a consequence of self-exclusion or restrictions.
Importantly, there was no proof of sustained progress in unlawful market participation in areas the place knowledge exists. The regulator harassed that whereas a lot exercise happens past its oversight, the danger to customers and the regulated sector stays appreciable.
Chief Government Andrew Rhodes commented: “Unlawful on-line playing stays a critical menace to customers and to the integrity of the regulated market. Whereas measuring the total scale of the issue is advanced, our understanding is rising — and so too is our skill to disrupt unlawful operators. Our unbiased analysis has strengthened the proof base, improved transparency, and underlined that progress relies on a collective effort throughout sectors.”
Within the report’s conclusion, the UKGC outlined plans to proceed analysis and enforcement actions. Future work might embrace analysing VPN utilization traits, monitoring search exercise for unlicensed operators, and revising engagement fashions with up to date knowledge from licensed operators.
Dedication to Continued Analysis
Director of enforcement and intelligence John Pierce added that the regulator is enhancing its intelligence capabilities by partnerships throughout monetary, technological, and regulatory sectors. “Unlawful playing isn’t a static menace,” Pierce mentioned. “It’s adaptive, opportunistic and more and more embedded in digital ecosystems on the worldwide stage. By way of focused disruption, strategic partnerships and continued funding in functionality, we’re constructing a resilient and efficient framework to guard customers and uphold the integrity of the regulated sector. We’re making progress; and we’re dedicated to going additional.”
Though this report concludes the sequence, the Fee confirmed on its web site that additional updates will comply with as ongoing analysis and enforcement evolve. The initiative displays a long-term dedication to understanding and countering unlawful playing by collaboration and evidence-driven technique.
