Solver-based research has remodeled how poker palms are understood, however lengthy earlier than GTO turned normal, gamers have been nonetheless making high-stakes selections below intense stress.
PokerNews Ambassador Lukas “RobinPoker” Robinson — utilizing GTO Wizard — went again to a hand from the 2015 WSOP Foremost Occasion remaining desk to see how two gamers dealt with excessive ICM spots, and the way carefully their selections aligned with trendy GTO technique.
The Hand
The hand befell eight-handed on the remaining desk of the 2015 WSOP Foremost Occasion. Blinds have been 250,000/500,000 with a 50,000 ante, first place paid greater than $7.6 million, and a six-big-blind stack was nonetheless in play.
Pierre Neuville sat with 22,925,000 (45.9bb), whereas Thomas Cannuli was below important stress within the large blind with 8,250,000 (16.5bb). With these stack sizes and the payout construction, each resolution carried main ICM implications.
Neuville opened to 1,275,000 holding Q♠Q♣ from the cutoff (CO). Cannuli defended the massive blind (BB) with Okay♥9♥.
The flop got here A♥J♦10♥. Each gamers checked.
The flip was the 4♥. Cannuli now made a king-high flush and led out for 1,000,000. Neuville referred to as.
The river introduced the Okay♦. Cannuli wager 3,200,000 right into a pot of 5,200,000. Neuville referred to as and revealed that he had made a straight on the river, however Cannuli’s flush was nonetheless greatest and took down the pot.
Pre-flop
Neuville’s open with pocket queens is totally solver-approved.
Cannuli’s name with king-nine suited is GTO disapproved.
The the solver really recommends shoving with K9s and 17% of palms. Shoving right here far outperforms calling by way of $EV.
Right here, the BB dealing with a CO open carries a 1.36 bubble issue and a 7.7% danger premium. With solely 16.5bb and the CO protecting with 46bb, plus a 6bb stack nonetheless on the desk, the BB wants 7.7% additional fairness to proceed. This permits the CO to use stress post-flop, forcing the BB to play out of place and make powerful selections. Let’s additionally analyse the CO’s calling vary to this all-in to see what palms fold.
Right here you’ll be able to see what number of higher and dominated palms the BB can pressure to fold from the CO’s vary when shoving all-in. With Cannuli holding solely 16.5bb, calling and flopping prime pair would probably pressure him to commit his remaining stack, making it essential to fold out many of those dominating palms.
One other factor to notice is that Neuville opened to 2.55bb, which provides the BB a worse worth to name however a greater worth to shove all-in.
All of those components mix to make shoving with K9s probably the most worthwhile pre-flop play.
Since Cannuli referred to as pre-flop, I’ll nodelock him to incorporate extra calls, permitting us to analyse the remainder of the hand utilizing the precise ranges performed by each opponents. This can be a actually efficient AI function inside GTO Wizard that I extremely advocate utilizing to analyse the precise in-game ranges gamers use. You may alter the ranges after which see the optimum technique for the remainder of the hand inside seconds.
What does $EV imply?
Often known as ICM EV. It’s the anticipated real-money worth of your match stack or resolution after making use of the payout construction.
It tells you the way a lot your chips are price in precise {dollars} in response to ICM.
Flop
On the A♥J♦10♥ flop, Cannullo makes the solver-approved verify along with his large combo draw. The solver recommends zero donk-betting from the BB on this flop, because the CO holds the EV and fairness benefit, together with positional superiority.
Neuville, with second pair, additionally checked which the solver additionally says is the perfect line to take.
The solver recommends a excessive share of betting on the flop from the CO vs the BB, because of the CO’s EV and fairness benefit. Solely 22% checking is really useful from the solver, with checks combined in amongst some QxQx combos.
Above you’ll be able to see that each one QxQx combos are really useful to wager at a excessive frequency, utilizing each the 25% and 42% wager sizes. Nonetheless, checking has an identical EV to those betting choices, so it’s endorsed at a low frequency to stability the checking vary on this board.
Flip
Cannuli made his flush on the 4♥ flip and wager 1,000,000 right into a pot of three,200,000, which the solver appreciated.
The solver now recommends the BB to start out betting 46% of their vary on this particular flip card.
You may see that the EV has now shifted in favour of the BB’s vary, together with a better share of the perfect palms, though the fairness benefit nonetheless stays with the CO. So, what does this really imply?
Greatest Arms = Flushes, Straights and Units
This implies the BB now holds extra of those sturdy palms of their vary than the CO does (20.8% vs 11.8%). Because of this, the BB’s vary positive aspects an EV benefit on the flip, since they will extract extra worth. Nonetheless, the CO nonetheless retains the fairness benefit, which means that if the hand have been performed to showdown with out betting, the CO’s combos are nonetheless barely extra prone to win total, largely due to the positional benefit.
The solver recommends the bigger wager dimension of 73% over the 31% that Cannuli used in-game, though the distinction in EV between the 2 just isn’t important.
The solver recommends utilizing the 73% dimension as a result of it’s a geometric wager.
Neuville referred to as the flip wager along with his Q♠Q♣, however the solver wasn’t a fan of this play and disapproved.
Solely 19% of combos fold to this dimension on the flip from the CO, however sadly for Neuville, Q♠Q♣ falls inside that 19%.
Q♠Q♣ is definitely the one pocket queens combo that’s not worthwhile to name vs this flip wager. So, though it was a mistake from Neuville, it wasn’t a serious one. As a result of this particular queens combo wouldn’t name the flip in concept, I’ll nodelock it to name, permitting us to analyse the remainder of the hand.
What’s a geometrical wager dimension?
A geometrical wager dimension is one the place you wager a constant share of the pot on every road in order that stacks find yourself successfully going all-in on the river. This strategy is perfect when your vary is completely polarized, because it maximizes minimal protection frequency (MDF) whereas making certain that the total stacks are dedicated by the river.
River
The Okay♦ accomplished the board, and Canulli made a solver authorised wager of three,200,000 into 5,200,000.
The BB is actually range-betting on this river card, mixing between 25%, 61%, and all-in sizes.
It’s because the BB now holds a considerably increased EV and fairness benefit total on this river card.
Cannuli discovered the best EV play on this river card by utilizing the 61% dimension with K9s. A really well-played hand by him.
Neuville improved to a straight and referred to as. This was GTO authorised.
Neuville discovered the best EV line on the river with Q♠Q♣, calling a straight and making a worthwhile play.
You may see above that a lot of the two pair, set, and straight combos within the CO’s vary by no means fold, with folds solely beginning to happen towards this dimension for prime pair palms.
Conclusion
To reply the title query: Have been these two gamers enjoying something near GTO poker again in 2015 on the WSOP remaining desk? They have been shut.
The largest pre-flop mistake was Cannuli solely flatting vs the two.55bb open. Put up-flop, nonetheless, each performed the hand very near optimum GTO. Cannuli’s largest EV misstep was utilizing a 31% wager dimension on the flip, costing him 0.05 EV in comparison with the solver’s most well-liked 73% dimension. Neuville’s largest mistake was calling the flip with QQ, shedding simply -0.03 EV.
So, though neither performed the hand 100% in response to solver suggestions, it’s spectacular how shut they got here, particularly contemplating this hand was performed 10 years in the past, when solvers have been nonetheless a brand new software within the sport.
If you wish to analyse your individual poker palms and see how shut your play is to GTO in response to the solver, obtain GTO Wizard without spending a dime right this moment!
Lukas Robinson
PokerNews Ambassador
