Can Kings Gets Away from a Flopped Set of Fives in the EPT Malta Main Event?

Is it doable to get away from an overpair like pocket kings when your opponent flops a set? Our mates at GTO Wizard examined a hand from the 2025 PokerStars European Poker Tour (EPT) €5,300 Malta Foremost Occasion that examines such a scenario.

The hand between Aliaksei Boika and Mykhailo Ostash befell with 4 gamers remaining and blinds of fifty,000/100,000/100,000 with €760,000 on the road.

The Motion

Aliaksei Boika opens to 200,000 within the CO holding Okay♦Okay♣. Mykhailo Ostash defends from the BB with 5♥5♣. Each gamers examine on the flop of 9♥8♠5♠ and Ostash bets 500,000 on the 4♥ flip. Boika referred to as.

On the two♦ river, Ostash bets all-in (3,600,000 efficient). Boika calls shortly for his event life. Ostash reveals 5♥5♣ for a set of fives. Boika reveals his Okay♦Okay♣ and is out in 4th place, cashing for €260,750.

Pre-Flop Evaluation

Aliaksei Boika opens to 200,000 within the CO holding Okay♦Okay♣. GTO Accredited

Mykhailo Ostash defends from the BB with 5♥5♣. GTO Accredited

Commonplace performs from each gamers. Let’s transfer onto post-flop play.

Submit-Flop Evaluation

Flop (550K Pot): 9♥8♠5♠

Ostash checks. GTO Accredited

Apparently, the solver suggests a big quantity of donk-betting from the BB on this particular flop. It is because the BB’s vary incorporates many straight and two-pair combos, permitting betting to be blended with checking. Nonetheless, 55 usually prefers to examine on this flop.

Boika checks. GTO Accredited

As a result of the BB’s vary incorporates many straights and two-pair combos, the CO finally ends up checking steadily on the flop, even with very sturdy fingers like AA and KK. Discover that AA and KK are checking extra typically than fingers like TT and JJ. Why? It’s for pot management: because the BB has many sturdy fingers of their vary on this flop, together with AA and KK within the checking vary helps steadiness it, stopping the CO’s checks from consisting solely of weak holdings. TT and JJ, alternatively, require extra safety, which is why they’re betting extra steadily, regardless of being weaker than AA and KK.

EV for KK on the Flop vs BB Verify:

You’ll be able to see that the solver recommends betting extra with Okay♠. It is because the hand has extra fairness from the backdoor flush, making it simpler to name a check-raise from the BB on the flop.

Flip (550K Pot): 4♥

Ostash bets 500,000 with 5♥5♣. GTO Accredited

Really helpful Guess Sizes and EV for 55 on the Flip:

Above, you may see that the solver’s most steadily really useful guess measurement is 26%, whereas the 90% measurement is used solely 14.5% of the time. The bigger measurement is primarily employed by fingers that need to extract a whole lot of worth on the flip but additionally require safety, equivalent to 9x fingers. The 26% measurement is used for many of the different pairs.

Apparently, the solver by no means makes use of the 90% measurement with 55. Whereas the EV of betting 90% with 55 could be very near that of betting 26%, the solver avoids it to take care of steadiness. Robust fingers like units have to be included within the 26% betting vary to forestall this line from being exploitable; if solely weaker pairs and bluffs used this measurement, opponents may simply take benefit.

Boika calls the five hundred,000 guess with Okay♦Okay♣. GTO Accredited

The solver recommends nearly no elevating on the flip right here, because of the BB using a polarised betting vary.

What’s a polarised guess in poker? A polarised guess means you might be betting with two forms of fingers solely:

Your strongest worth fingers (fingers that need to get referred to as)Your weakest bluffs (fingers that may’t win at showdown and need folds)

EV for KK on the Flip vs the five hundred,000 guess:

Elevating with KK towards this vary makes little sense, because it solely folds out bluffs whereas getting referred to as by stronger fingers.

River (1,550,000 Pot): 2♦

Ostash bets all-in with 5♥5♣. GTO Accredited

As soon as once more, the solver recommends a polarised guess on the river with the highest and backside of your vary, placing your opponent to the check. The all-in measurement tells your opponent that you just both have a really sturdy hand otherwise you’re bluffing. A balanced vary on this spot could be very arduous to play towards.

EV for 55 on the River:

The all-in sizing is the very best EV play with 55 on the river.

Boika calls the all-in with Okay♦Okay♣. GTO Disapproved

Presumably the hardest resolution of the whole hand, however one which Boika sadly received improper, each in-game and in idea.

EV for KK on the River vs the all-in:

Above, you may see that the solver’s really useful river play with KK is generally to fold, with Okay♦Okay♣ mixing in a name at a really low frequency. Nonetheless, that is towards a variety that features a balanced variety of bluffs.

Let’s see what occurs if we nodelock the BB to examine extra with their bluffs, which is probably going how most gamers would really play in-game, and look at how this impacts KK’s calling vary and EV.

What’s nodelocking? Nodelocking is the method of forcing a selected motion or frequency at a selected resolution level (node) in a solver’s technique, in order that the solver recalculates optimum methods for the remainder of the hand based mostly on that pressured motion.

Vs this nodelocked vary, solely units and straights are calling on the river.

KK now folds utterly, with its calling EV considerably lowered in comparison with earlier.

Conclusion

An excellent fascinating hand performed on one among poker’s largest phases, the EPT Foremost Occasion. Each gamers demonstrated a excessive stage of ability in navigating this spot, however sadly for Boika, his largest mistake got here on the river, costing him his event life. Boika cashed for €260,750 and completed in fourth place. Mykhailo Ostash secured second place, in the end taking residence €603,058 after chopping the heads-up prize pool.

Try the total hand on YouTube starting on the 12:00 mark.