The battle between state regulators and prediction markets has been heating up recently with numerous lawsuits filed over the difficulty of whether or not or not buying and selling on these markets constitutes a sort of playing. Now the Commodities Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) is throwing its hat into the ring by suing a number of states, arguing that it, and it alone, has the authority to manage these markets.
Concerning the Lawsuits
In an announcement on its web site, the CFTC defined its reasoning. It is suing Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois for his or her actions in opposition to designated contract markets which can be registered with the CFTC. The CFTC argues that the Commodity Alternate Act provides it “clear and longstanding unique jurisdiction” over these markets.
Illinois authorities despatched cease-and-desist letters to Robinhood (4/1/25), Kalshi (4/1/25), Crypto.com (4/1/25), and Polymarket (1/27/26) relating to “Suspected Unlawful Sports activities Wagering” at these prediction market platforms. On March 17, 2026, Arizona filed 20-count misdemeanor fees in opposition to Kalshi for alleged infractions, together with accepting bets from Arizonans and election wagering. Connecticut, for its half, despatched cease-and-desist letters to Robinhood, Kalshi, and Crypto.com in December 2025 accusing them of conducting unlawful playing.
Nevertheless, the CFTC contends that the contracts being traded on these prediction markets are usually not a type of playing or sports activities betting. Reasonably, these markets contain occasion contracts which can be the area of the CFTC to supervise. Thus, the states are exceeding their authority in searching for to manage such markets.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Earlier than we proceed additional, maybe it could be a good suggestion to go over, in easy phrases, what precisely prediction markets are and the way they function. These markets, that are hosted by the likes of Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood, enable customers to commerce contracts tied to sure outcomes occurring or not occurring.
For instance, for a market entitled “Will the European Central Financial institution hike charges in 2026?” there may be two contracts accessible: one labeled “sure” and the opposite referred to as “no.” You should purchase whichever one you suppose will turn into appropriate at present market costs, which can vary between $0 and $1.
Will the European Central Financial institution Increase Charges in 2026?On the time the market is resolved, which can in all probability be on the finish of 2026, those that maintain “sure” contracts will probably be rewarded with a payout of $1 for every contract they personal if the ECB did increase its charges in 2026. Ought to the opposite show appropriate, then these holding “no” will as a substitute obtain $1 for each contract they possess. In both case, the “dropping” contracts will expire nugatory.
At any level after buying a contract and earlier than it resolves, it’s possible you’ll promote it. The value is decided equally to shares on the inventory market with a variety between bid and ask costs and the chance to make market or restrict trades.
Apart from markets with only a single “sure” and “no” contract accessible, there are others which have a number of units of contracts being traded. An instance may be a market on who will probably be named Secretary of Justice in a brand new Presidential administration. There could possibly be three or extra potentialities every with their very own contracts in favor or in opposition to a specific particular person with separate costs for all of them (though they are going to, in fact, be inversely correlated with one another).
Why Are States Concerned with Prediction Markets?
It was only a few years in the past that prediction markets have been largely ignored by nearly each state. They have been capable of conduct their enterprise with out worrying about 50 totally different authorized codes and solely needed to be involved about what the CFTC needed to say about their operations.
Nevertheless, in January 2025, Kalshi began providing contracts based mostly on the outcomes on sporting occasions, adopted by Polymarket in December 2025. In the meantime, Crypto.com has been providing such merchandise since December 2024.
Instance of Sports activities Markets Out there at KalshiThese new choices adopted a wave of state-level sports activities betting legalization and growth beginning in 2018 after the Supreme Courtroom choice in NCAA v Murphy. This ruling ended the federal ban on sports activities betting growth, permitting states to legalize and regulate the sort of playing.
Following the SCOTUS Resolution in Murphy v. NCAA, Sports activities Betting Exploded Throughout the NationSome three dozen states now allow sports activities betting. Most of them enable on-line sportsbooks to safe licenses to function inside their borders, however a number of of them prohibit such wagering to brick-and-mortar areas. Whatever the particulars in any single state, there’s one factor all of them have in widespread: They every levy taxes on and thus generate income from betting on sports activities.
Subsequently, states with licensed sports activities playing view prediction markets as entities providing comparable companies however with out being licensed to take action and with out paying any state taxes. It is comprehensible that they are sad with this state of affairs.
Many States Concerned in Disputes
The CFTC has sued Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut particularly for his or her actions in opposition to prediction markets, however different states have carried out comparable crackdowns. No fewer than 11 states have despatched cease-and-desist orders to varied prediction markets, together with Tennessee, Montana, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, and Michigan. Some states have even sued prediction markets, like Washington State, which filed a lawsuit in opposition to Kalshi in March 2026 and Nevada, which sued Coinbase in February 2026. Coinbase is a crypto-currency alternate that lately added predictions to its menu of companies.
Prediction markets have not taken this mendacity down both. They’ve proactively initiated authorized proceedings in opposition to numerous states as nicely. After Washington State sued Kalshi, Robinhood filed swimsuit in opposition to the state to attempt to defend its personal prediction markets. Kalshi, fearing impending laws within the Utah legislature, sued the state arguing that the proposed legislation treads inappropriately on regulatory floor correctly the area of the federal authorities.
The verdicts of some related court docket instances have already come down, like a current ruling that denied New Jersey the correct to manage prediction markets. In March 2025, New Jersey issued a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi claiming that the corporate was violating the New Jersey Sports activities Wagering Act and the New Jersey Structure by providing unlicensed sports activities wagering to residents of the Backyard State. In response, Kalshi sued the state, and in April 2025, a district court docket dominated in favor of the prediction market, telling New Jersey officers that they’d no authority to manage these markets. New Jersey appealed, however on April 6, 2026, a federal appeals court docket upheld the unique choice in opposition to New Jersey.
Nevertheless, a court docket case in Nevada seems to be moving into the wrong way. On March 20, 2026, the Carson Metropolis District Courtroom issued a restraining order in opposition to Kalshi, and this order was prolonged by 14 days on April 3. We’re nonetheless ready on a ultimate choice within the case, however it appears to be going in opposition to Kalshi for the time being.
Litigants Weigh In
Relating to its causes for making an attempt to claim its sole authority over prediction markets presently, CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig defined:
The CFTC will proceed to safeguard its unique regulatory authority over these markets and defend market individuals in opposition to overzealous state regulators. This isn’t the primary time states have tried to impose inconsistent and opposite obligations on market individuals, however Congress particularly rejected such a fragmented patchwork of state rules as a result of it resulted in poorer client safety and elevated threat of fraud and manipulation.
CFTC Chairman Michael S. SeligNevertheless, the states being sued have an understandably totally different perspective. A spokesperson for Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker acknowledged:
The Trump Administration is carrying water for firms driving well-documented and profitable insider buying and selling schemes. These corporations are making file earnings whereas exposing Illinoisans to gaming merchandise with no fundamental client protections or oversight. It is a blatant try and sidestep the State’s jurisdiction and put earnings forward of customers. Illinois is not backing down — we’ll proceed to combat to guard Illinois customers.
Prediction Markets Increasing
In keeping with a report from Dune and Keyrock, month-to-month prediction market quantity reached $13 billion in November 2025 up from lower than $100 million lower than two years prior. These markets are increasing their choices, which suggests this quantity is more likely to develop additional within the upcoming future.
For instance, in December 2025, Coinbase added predictions to its menu of merchandise in partnership with Kalshi. In November 2025, Polymarket made a take care of Hustler On line casino to hold contracts on the outcomes of streamed dwell poker video games, and Kalshi inked an identical settlement with The Lodge in February 2026.
Examples of Poker-Associated Contracts Provided at PolymarketAs this quickly burgeoning business seeks to proceed ahead with new merchandise to entice new prospects, it is going to undoubtedly respect authorized readability as to how and by whom it may be regulated. The outcomes of the three lawsuits from the CFTC will assist set up much-needed readability on these factors.
Congress Getting in on the Motion
The US Congress can be searching for to manage prediction markets. On March 26, 2026, three Democrat lawmakers, Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and Consultant Jamie Raskin of Maryland, launched the STOP Corrupt Bets Act. This invoice would stop prediction markets from buying and selling contracts involving elections, sports activities, sure authorities choices, and warfare.
Ought to this laws move and turn into legislation, it is going to probably trump regardless of the courts determine. It could additionally in all probability supersede any makes an attempt by the states to manage such markets.
Betting the Conventional Approach
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Final Up to date March 18, 2026 – by Max Golden, Editor-in-Chief
